通货膨胀、以及造假说
08-06-13 10:52:56, 分类: 通货膨胀
今天公布的数据显示，通货膨胀月速度0.6%，核心通货膨胀月速度0.2%。按照年率计算，通货膨胀率为4.3%，核心通货膨胀为2.3%。
数据公布之后，股市大幅高开，华尔街评论认为，这样的数据显示通货膨胀并不像大家担心的那样高，鼓励市场出现乐观情绪。
要问的是，今天的通货膨胀数据是利好吗？我的回答是，不是。 我以为，市场体现出来的乐观情绪，本身显示出，投资者对通货膨胀过分担忧。按照我的宏观模型研究，2.3%的通货膨胀水平属于预料之中的正常表现，或者说，投资者本来就不应该预期更高的通货膨胀压力。
通货膨胀的具体结构如下：
“Indeed and not surprisingly, energy led the May jump with a 4.5 percent surge after a 0.2 percent down tick in April. The latest increase included a 5.7 percent increase in motor fuel, a 7.9 percent spike in heating oil, and a 2.3 percent gain in piped gas & electricity costs.
The key components keeping the core rate moderate were owners' equivalent rent, up 0.1 percent, recreation, up 0.1 percent, and medical care, up 0.2 percent. Also, new & used motor vehicles slipped 0.1 percent while apparel declined 0.3 percent.
In addition to energy, food prices are still a little toasty, posting a 0.3 percent increase for May. Also on the warm side were education & communication, up 0.4 percent, and "other," gaining 0.4 percent. ”
也就是说，推升通胀的仍然主要是能源与食品两大因素，而在服装、房租、汽车、医疗等项目上，通货膨胀压力是轻微的。
这样的场景，完全符合我对目前通货膨胀形势的预期。
顺便说一句，希望是最后一次提及这一点：没有理由将美国通货膨胀数据称为造假。理由如次：
第一，为什么全球各国的通货膨胀数据都是真实的，而唯独美国政府造假？
第二，如果是造假，请问是联邦劳动统计局局长的个人行为还是机构行为？如果是个人行为，请指认其职位犯罪的证据；如果是机构行为，请指认其作为一个整体造假的链条与每个人的责任。鉴于通货膨胀数据是各个子项目的加总，请指出在每个子项目上有何证据显示了造假。
第三，其他经济指标与公布的通货膨胀数据吻合程度极高。例如，从另一个统计口径——国民经济体系核算——来统计的GDP数据以及GDP价格折算指标(GDP Price Index)所得到的通货膨胀数据与CPI指标高度一致，仅有细节上的差别。另一个数据，从消费者支出口径得到的PCE价格数据也类似。鉴于这些数据由另一个机构提供，要指证联邦劳动统计局造假，就得连带指证其他统计机构也都在造假；如果在通货膨胀数据上造假，那么，也必然要指证别的与通货膨胀数据精密关联的统计数据都造假，这也基本上意味着所有统计机构的所有统计数据都在造假。
即使真的所有这些统计机构都在所有的统计数据上造假，我们仍然有由市场交易得到的数据。而市场交易所形成的数据并不认为所有的统计数据都是造假，例如，通货膨胀预期指标——TIPS（Inflation protected bond）收益率与相应债券收益率之差——与实际公布的通货膨胀大体同等变动；再例如，真实通货膨胀基本上在0以上变动。如果按照某些人的指控，美国政府造假以大幅低报通货膨胀率，这些数据都应该给出相反证据。
总之，如同我以前曾经表达过的， 通货膨胀的统计方法值得争辩的地方，是在如何改进上，而不存在是否造假的问题。如果你的结论与数据不吻合，请检查自己的分析思路，而不是简单地指责别人造假——这太廉价了，而且分析能力永远上不了台阶。
～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～～
经济学家对美国经济增长的预期有所调低：
随后的4个季度，增长速度都被调低到2%以下。与以前的乐观估计相比，这样的估计更加接近我在年初的预测。
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评论源自: spider7006 · http://blog.westca.com/blog_spider7006/index.html
同意，在连续的数据中能够造假而没有破绽是件非常困难的事。
其原因可能是核心通涨与人们感受有差距，毕竟汽油是美国百姓一个重要日常消费品。就像中国非食品通涨仅1.7%一样，让人觉得差异。
其原因可能是核心通涨与人们感受有差距，毕竟汽油是美国百姓一个重要日常消费品。就像中国非食品通涨仅1.7%一样，让人觉得差异。
08-06-13 @ 12:36
评论源自: 0000000 · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
阴谋~~~数据是用来玩弄经济学家的~~~~在市场供大于求的状况下如何膨胀?????
08-06-13 @ 18:19
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
Obviously. Any person with intelligence will suspect the digits are fake. "Seasonly adjusted" - this is a way to hide the inflation. Check gas price, see how much it was up from last year's may. 4-5%? laughable.
08-06-13 @ 21:33
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
第一，为什么全球各国的通货膨胀数据都是真实的，而唯独美国政府造假
>> why do you think all countries' data is true? logical error. If all countries' data is true, the USA's data cannot be fake? logical error again.
>> why do you think all countries' data is true? logical error. If all countries' data is true, the USA's data cannot be fake? logical error again.
08-06-13 @ 21:35
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
第二，如果是造假，请问是联邦劳动统计局局长的个人行为还是机构行为？如果是个人行为，请指认其职位犯罪的证据；如果是机构行为，请指认其作为一个整体造假的链条与每个人的责任。鉴于通货膨胀数据是各个子项目的加总，请指出在每个子项目上有何证据显示了造假。
The problem is how they do "seasonal adjustment". The old way to caculate is more close to the reality. It's the algorithm that causes the problem. Even the unemployment rate is based on some birth model which has been deemed not good for the time now.
The problem is how they do "seasonal adjustment". The old way to caculate is more close to the reality. It's the algorithm that causes the problem. Even the unemployment rate is based on some birth model which has been deemed not good for the time now.
08-06-13 @ 21:37
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
例如，从另一个统计口径——国民经济体系核算——来统计的GDP数据以及GDP价格折算指标(GDP Price Index)所得到的通货膨胀数据与CPI指标高度一致
GDP is fake too. The inflation is lower so the GDP is relatively adjusted "higher".
GDP is fake too. The inflation is lower so the GDP is relatively adjusted "higher".
08-06-13 @ 21:38
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
通货膨胀预期指标——TIPS（Inflation protected bond）收益率与相应债券收益率之差——与实际公布的通货膨胀大体同等变动；
Some US people have dumped TIPS since its negative saving rate due to fake CPI.
Some US people have dumped TIPS since its negative saving rate due to fake CPI.
08-06-13 @ 21:39
评论源自: 海影 · http://www.mmmca.com/blog_u4930/index.html
如果要认真批评，先花点时间研究吧。研究一下别人的统计数据和做法，以及学术方面的文章。
4.5%是比上个月的价格上扬，不是比去年。连这个都不明白就来指证别人造假，才真是laughable啦。
seasonal adjustment只更改价格幅度在各月之间的分布，不改变长期的通货膨胀率。seasonal adjustment是否是最佳的，可以质疑；但现行的seasonal adjustment绝非为欺骗而设计；如果使用unadjusted 数据，长期而言得到的结论没有区别。
如果一定要说所有的数据都是伪造的，就仿佛说周围的每个人随时都是小偷一样，我实在觉得没有对话的余地。GDP平均增长大约3%左右，如果通货膨胀被低估了3%以上，你是在说战后美国经济没有任何实际增长。对我而言，这是荒谬的结论。
对TIPS一条的争辩也是无法成立的。有人卖，也有人买，这本是市场运作的方式，而得到的结果就是整体市场对通货膨胀的评估。而这种评估——如同我说的——在印证官方公布的数据而不是相反。
最后，如果别人公布的数据都是假造的，请问，你能够提供什么替代物？自己的感觉？
4.5%是比上个月的价格上扬，不是比去年。连这个都不明白就来指证别人造假，才真是laughable啦。
seasonal adjustment只更改价格幅度在各月之间的分布，不改变长期的通货膨胀率。seasonal adjustment是否是最佳的，可以质疑；但现行的seasonal adjustment绝非为欺骗而设计；如果使用unadjusted 数据，长期而言得到的结论没有区别。
如果一定要说所有的数据都是伪造的，就仿佛说周围的每个人随时都是小偷一样，我实在觉得没有对话的余地。GDP平均增长大约3%左右，如果通货膨胀被低估了3%以上，你是在说战后美国经济没有任何实际增长。对我而言，这是荒谬的结论。
对TIPS一条的争辩也是无法成立的。有人卖，也有人买，这本是市场运作的方式，而得到的结果就是整体市场对通货膨胀的评估。而这种评估——如同我说的——在印证官方公布的数据而不是相反。
最后，如果别人公布的数据都是假造的，请问，你能够提供什么替代物？自己的感觉？
08-06-13 @ 22:52
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
Check this out. Expand your narrow horizon.
http://www.shadowstats.com/
If a month for energy is 4%, what is for a whole year>
BTW. Your prediction for oil price and house bottom are wrong. Gold is not down too. Seems only you are so happy with the inflation.
http://www.shadowstats.com/
If a month for energy is 4%, what is for a whole year>
BTW. Your prediction for oil price and house bottom are wrong. Gold is not down too. Seems only you are so happy with the inflation.
08-06-13 @ 23:46
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
Check more comments from what the normal US people say about inflation. You mean all people are lying except US goverment? What is common sense?
08-06-13 @ 23:50
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
如果你的结论与数据不吻合，请检查自己的分析思路，而不是简单地指责别人造假——这太廉价了，而且分析能力永远上不了台阶
Your conclusion is cheap too. I don't see how many things you brought up here can support US's digits are correct.
Your conclusion is cheap too. I don't see how many things you brought up here can support US's digits are correct.
08-06-13 @ 23:55
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
What causes high inflation? US bailout on banks and low interest rates. One thing you can notice is CAD has appreciate how much since year 2000 (0.6 to 1.0 now)? US's M3 keeps raising.
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292
The efforts by the federal government and the Federal Reserve to prevent a systemic collapse as a result of the banking solvency crisis has started to spike broad money growth, as measured by the SGS-Ongoing M3 measure, which currently shows a record annual growth rate of 17.3%. While the Fed has not been formally creating new money — yet — by adding to reserves, it has had the effect of creating new money by re-liquefying otherwise illiquid banks, by lending liquid assets versus illiquid assets. As a result, a number of banks have been able to resume more normal functioning, lending money and creating new money supply. As the systemic bailout proceeds, formal money creation will follow and already may be starting to show up in official accounting.
http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292
The efforts by the federal government and the Federal Reserve to prevent a systemic collapse as a result of the banking solvency crisis has started to spike broad money growth, as measured by the SGS-Ongoing M3 measure, which currently shows a record annual growth rate of 17.3%. While the Fed has not been formally creating new money — yet — by adding to reserves, it has had the effect of creating new money by re-liquefying otherwise illiquid banks, by lending liquid assets versus illiquid assets. As a result, a number of banks have been able to resume more normal functioning, lending money and creating new money supply. As the systemic bailout proceeds, formal money creation will follow and already may be starting to show up in official accounting.
08-06-14 @ 00:05
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=24
(4.0 - 2.8)/2.8 = 40% gas pump price increase for a year. See how the US goverment hid the energy increase in April(down 0.2% - totally a joke). Obviously April energy price should be up. Seasonal adjustment should average ? If yes, then the -0.2% in april should add 4.2% (4% increase each month) to other months?
(4.0 - 2.8)/2.8 = 40% gas pump price increase for a year. See how the US goverment hid the energy increase in April(down 0.2% - totally a joke). Obviously April energy price should be up. Seasonal adjustment should average ? If yes, then the -0.2% in april should add 4.2% (4% increase each month) to other months?
08-06-14 @ 05:52
评论源自: spider7006 · http://blog.westca.com/blog_spider7006/index.html
看起来对统计数据不放心的人不少啊。若干年前，我入行调查统计业的时候曾一度认为这个行业极度不科学，因为其每个环节都是误差不断放大的过程。但这个行业已经按照数理统计理论发展出很精细处理方法，包括原始数据规范，样本加权，事后的各种数据修正等等，我总结为，搞到最后如果你认为其结果不准确也只能怨“科学方法的不准确”而不能认为是做假。
其实很多事实证明，对一件事情的统计结果与人的直觉是不可能相同的（否则还需要统计做什么？）。我曾经见过大企业经理人及其很多一线的区域销售总管，我们的调查数据显示在他们品牌占有率在很明显下降时，他们自己掌握的信息和感觉还是在上升的，然后还大骂我们统计数据错误...一段时间以后，就差人来买俺们的数据。
其实很多事实证明，对一件事情的统计结果与人的直觉是不可能相同的（否则还需要统计做什么？）。我曾经见过大企业经理人及其很多一线的区域销售总管，我们的调查数据显示在他们品牌占有率在很明显下降时，他们自己掌握的信息和感觉还是在上升的，然后还大骂我们统计数据错误...一段时间以后，就差人来买俺们的数据。
08-06-14 @ 07:25
评论源自: spider7006 · http://blog.westca.com/blog_spider7006/index.html
目前全世界各类企业每年大约花费150亿美元给商业性数据调查分析公司以获得消费品、受众、民意方面的数据，其根本原因就是个人的直觉常常和实际状况之间存在很大的差距，需要专业的统计数据来支撑。以美国大选为例，专业调查公司往往只调查1000－2000美国人就能预测出几亿人的实际选票分配状况，这个过程是相当科学复杂的，这是很能说明统计的科学性。
08-06-14 @ 07:45
评论源自: Stagflation · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
Anybody has passed grade 12 knows that the cause and effect between A and B has 4 relations.
1) A+ --> B+
2) A- --> B-
3) A+ --> B-
4) A- --> B+
The first two are positive correlation, the latter two are negative correlation.
The low inflation and rising GDP growth since 1980s has officially finished in early 2000. Main stream economist all predict the slow economy will bring down inflation. Those who said that either failed grade 12 or got a hidden agenda. If so, the stagflation in 1970s proved them wrong, the current situation will prove them wrong again. Economy has 4 cycles. Wishful thinking does not help.
1) A+ --> B+
2) A- --> B-
3) A+ --> B-
4) A- --> B+
The first two are positive correlation, the latter two are negative correlation.
The low inflation and rising GDP growth since 1980s has officially finished in early 2000. Main stream economist all predict the slow economy will bring down inflation. Those who said that either failed grade 12 or got a hidden agenda. If so, the stagflation in 1970s proved them wrong, the current situation will prove them wrong again. Economy has 4 cycles. Wishful thinking does not help.
08-06-16 @ 10:02
评论源自: Stagflation · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
The producer-price index jump exceeded the 1 percent forecast among economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. It was the biggest increase since November.
Industrial production is down, that's the stag part, and prices are up, that's the inflation part.
This is the precise definition of
StagFlation.
Industrial production is down, that's the stag part, and prices are up, that's the inflation part.
This is the precise definition of
StagFlation.
08-06-17 @ 09:42
评论源自: Stagflation · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
As a matter of fact, if Washington really intended to stabilise the Dollar or, more ambitiously, to push it up against the other currencies, there would only be one way (5), in two parts: raising significantly the Fed's interest rates, and lowering drastically the pace of money printing. But if the government decided to implement this type of policy, the US economy (both real and financial) STOPS DEAD a few weeks after : the real estate market falls to zero by lack of affordable credit and as a result of soaring interests on Adjustable Rate Mortgage loans, consumption becomes negative (i.e. shrinks back each month), corporate failures multiply exponentially, Wall Street collapses under the burden of innumerable debts and succumbs to the instantaneous implosion of the CDS market due to counterparties default...
Such a series of events, sure to happen if Washington implements a voluntary policy of dollar-rescue, is probably unacceptable by the US authorities. Therefore, apart from talking – and further self-discrediting – they cannot do anything. The method used in the past decades is no longer available: no one will accept to buy large amounts of Dollars in order to rescue the US currency if some voluntary policy (like the one described previously) is not implemented by Washington. As they will not do it, the rest of the world will draw its own conclusions: EVERYMAN FOR HIMSELF, knowing that from mid-August onward, as Beijing is relieved from the constraint of the Olympic Games, a large number of “tough” options (6), put on the back burner until the Games, will resurface
Such a series of events, sure to happen if Washington implements a voluntary policy of dollar-rescue, is probably unacceptable by the US authorities. Therefore, apart from talking – and further self-discrediting – they cannot do anything. The method used in the past decades is no longer available: no one will accept to buy large amounts of Dollars in order to rescue the US currency if some voluntary policy (like the one described previously) is not implemented by Washington. As they will not do it, the rest of the world will draw its own conclusions: EVERYMAN FOR HIMSELF, knowing that from mid-August onward, as Beijing is relieved from the constraint of the Olympic Games, a large number of “tough” options (6), put on the back burner until the Games, will resurface
08-06-18 @ 12:35
评论源自: littlechuan · http:///htsrv/comment_post.php
Check this out. TIPS is a joke:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aPjqNRudfM.Q&refer=us
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aPjqNRudfM.Q&refer=us
08-07-07 @ 06:01
