更新ValueBand
08-03-14 10:53:17, 分类: 大势分析
更新了ValueBand图，给大家看看：
基本模型是根据利润增长速度，收益率曲线形状，ＶＩＸ指数等建立标准普尔５００指数价值区间。阴影部分代表股市估值过高的时期。从1998年到2002年的大部分时间，美国股市都呈现过高的估值。
去年８月期间，美国股市暴跌时，该模型显示价值低估。
不过，随着基本面出现重大变化，该模型显示股市估值重新回到正常范围，并跟随理论价值的下滑而下滑。
以上是对数图。
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评论源自: zHuang
我觉得支持美国股市的增长，除了合理的估值和对成长的可靠期待以外，还有一个巨大的动力是坚实的投资文化和良好的投资环境，也就是内因和外因。这次金融危机，如果对美国的投资文化和投资环境造成冲击，那么股市的损失将是长期和巨大的。
08-03-14 @ 13:22
评论源自: Stagdeflation · http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
dramatic change of social mood.
from borrow to spend to save for rainy days. i.e., do not live beyond means.
from borrow to spend to save for rainy days. i.e., do not live beyond means.
08-03-17 @ 08:21
评论源自: Stagdeflation · http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/
FYI.
it's a good time to buy because the bear market is (nearly) over. Like hell. Show me a bear market in the past 100 years that has lasted only four months and a recessionary market (with a REAL recession) that has fallen only 15% peak-to-trough. You can't, because on average bear markets last nine months and peak-to-trough valuations suffer a haircut of 30%
Bottoms are accurately called by many market participants. Historically, it doesn't work like that. Bottoms happen when nobody wants to own stocks
The market is cheap. The hell it is. On a current market basis the S&P and Russell P/E have actually increased in the last year. The Russell is currently trading at a P/E of FORTY!
There is a big difference between someone who claims to call markets as an "analyst" and someone who makes his calls with his wallet.
The former risks his job but can always get another one among the Pigmen (and before you dispute this, tell me how Abby Cohen is still employed after her disastrous calls in the Tech Wreck?) The latter risks his house, his car, his boat and his retirement.
Who has a greater incentive to actually analyze and tell you what they really think.
it's a good time to buy because the bear market is (nearly) over. Like hell. Show me a bear market in the past 100 years that has lasted only four months and a recessionary market (with a REAL recession) that has fallen only 15% peak-to-trough. You can't, because on average bear markets last nine months and peak-to-trough valuations suffer a haircut of 30%
Bottoms are accurately called by many market participants. Historically, it doesn't work like that. Bottoms happen when nobody wants to own stocks
The market is cheap. The hell it is. On a current market basis the S&P and Russell P/E have actually increased in the last year. The Russell is currently trading at a P/E of FORTY!
There is a big difference between someone who claims to call markets as an "analyst" and someone who makes his calls with his wallet.
The former risks his job but can always get another one among the Pigmen (and before you dispute this, tell me how Abby Cohen is still employed after her disastrous calls in the Tech Wreck?) The latter risks his house, his car, his boat and his retirement.
Who has a greater incentive to actually analyze and tell you what they really think.
08-03-22 @ 18:39
