美联储有多聪明、有力？
David Merkel的博客是我常常阅读的。做为精算师出生、专长保险与金融公司分析的CFA，他对经济的解读时常给我启发。
在今天的文章中， 他提出一个很有意思的问题：美联储有多聪明？他们又有多大的能量？
回答是：他们十分聪明，大约可以排进前25%，但排不进去前10%；短期而言，他们的能量一般，中期而言，他们的能量很大，尤其是在周期后期。
排不进去前10%的原因是，他们收集了太多的聪明人，太多的经济学博士，而大数定律是无可逃避的；众多的聪明人在一起，几乎必然导致回归平均值。同时，美联储做为一个政治机构，难以完全做到政治中立；第三个原因，象任何机构一样，既然存在，就得不断证明自己存在的价值，即使有时候不做任何事情是最佳的，他们也无法抵挡“做点什么”的欲望。做为结果，美联储整体而言的得分就排不进去前10%了。
满有道理的说法。
可以提出的反对意见是，美联储毕竟是一家层级结构运行的机构，而不是一盘散沙的经济学家集合体。正如NASA可以积累无数理学博士的智慧而把航天飞机送上天一样，美联储也应该有机会比他们机构内经济学家的平均值得分更高。
导致美联储无法得到更高分的更大因素，我以为，可能在于经济理论到目前为止仍旧缺乏对复杂理论的把握能力。
刚才他们降息了，25bp，全文如下：
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/2 percent.
Economic growth was solid in the third quarter, and strains in financial markets have eased somewhat on balance. However, the pace of economic expansion will likely slow in the near term, partly reflecting the intensification of the housing correction. Today's action, combined with the policy action taken in September, should help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy that might otherwise arise from the disruptions in financial markets and promote moderate growth over time.
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but recent increases in energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put renewed upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
The Committee judges that, after this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner;
Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; Eric S. Rosengren; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Thomas M. Hoenig, who preferred no change in the federal funds rate at this meeting.
In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 5 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, and San Francisco.
嗯，滴水不漏的说法。有点意思。
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The third time when FED cuts rate, market tanks. The size of bond market is much greater than the stock market. The next rate cut will prompt the run on USD$, completely wipe out foreigner's hope or illusion on strong dollar. Since the credit easing cycle has started, never has it in history that FED will do it for just once or twice. Never in the past, never in the future.
美元对减息的反应，同样，不是说每次减息周期里面美元都崩溃。对美元币值更重大的影响因素，不是短期利率，而是中期利率。还有其他几个相当重要的因素，如生产率、股市回报率、通货膨胀率、贸易逆差等等。
这是为什么我多次说，自己的观点，要有数据的支持，而不是建立在希望之上。
FED can low rates while printing more money, even stock market goes up a little bit, so what? Can the losing purchasing power compensate the nominal return?
Current market is at all time high, is it realistic to expect it go higher? If so, shouldn't we suspect that too much money were PRINTED(credit creation)?
FED says it is injecting liquidity. Is FED pouring water? I'm just laughing.
FED only got carrot in hand, no stick to the spoiled boy.
If it tries to save the domestic economy, the international economy will pound us. If the Fed tries to save the dollar internationally by raising interest rates, it'll kill the domestic economy.
Instead of looking to the Fed to save you, then, I recommend you save yourself by investing in real international money. One way to do so is by purchasing silver. Gold is expensive, but silver is still a bargain even for the little guy. When the recession comes, the ripple effect on your financial future will be immeasurable.
~Robert Kiyosaki
Author of the book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad"
Any meaningful bounce in the USDollar or correction in the crude oil price might not occur until oil hits the 100 level. Watch the oil price for future price signals on the USDollar.
End of Quote
